Closing in on $100 a barrel

I predict $150 by next week.

Cool, I get mineral royalties

BRENT CRUDE •10 mins 103.96 +7.12 +7.35%

Gas up fifty cents overnight here

It's going gown, around 92 now

Rancid2 wrote:

It's going gown, around 92 now

It's the calm before the storm.

Ouch - $110 a barrel today

Make that $115

Oil hits 10-year high and closes in on $120 a barrel
LaToya Harding·Business reporter
Thu, March 3, 2022, 2:53 AM

Oil hits 10-year high and closes in on $120 a barrel

Brent crude oil (BZ=F), the international benchmark, climbed to over $119 (£89) a barrel to a 10-year high on Thursday as the war in Ukraine continued to stoke supply concerns.

It briefly touched $119.30, its highest level since March 2012, before later retreating slightly meaning Brent has gained $20 in just a week since Russian troops pushed into Ukraine.

West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) was also trading above $115 on the day, its highest since 2008.

It comes as the US has targeted Russia’s oil refining sector with sanctions, with the possibility that its oil and gas exports will be next on the list.

Earlier this week, the US, along with Japan and other major consumer nations, agreed to release 60 million barrels from their stockpiles in an attempt to stabilise global energy markets.

However, Russia’s key role as an exporter of oil and gas is driving more chaos in energy markets, while the region's importance for other key commodities means panic is spreading through markets.

After the US and Saudi Arabia, Russia is the third largest oil producer globally, and is also the world's largest natural gas exporter.

“With OPEC+ refusing to respond to the sharp spike in oil prices by sticking to its 400,000 barrels per day increase in output in March and with the market unfazed by the IEA’s global crude reserve release, the geopolitical tensions look set to push oil prices higher with Brent crude on track to breach $120 or even $125 as the next major resistance hurdles,” Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, said.

Russian deputy prime minister Alexander Novak, who attended the OPEC+ talks on Wednesday, said he hoped oil market volatility would ease and that Russian output was expected to reach pre-pandemic levels in May.

Meanwhile, benchmark European natural gas prices jumped as much as 20% to €198 per megawatt-hour on Thursday.

The Dutch April gas futures contract has gained more than 12% to €186 per megawatt hour, setting a new record, while the UK equivalent is also approaching the record high hit at the end of last year.

It is currently 8.3% higher at 426.9p per therm, not far from the all-time high of around 450p in December.

UK drivers are now facing record petrol and diesel prices amid soaring oil prices. February marked the fourth month of rising fuel prices with petrol and diesel both shooting up by £4.5p a litre to new record highs, according to RAC.

Energy analysts warn prices could even reach £1.60 a litre causing yet more pain for motorists with no end in sight.

"February was undoubtedly a shocking month for drivers. A rise of 4.5p in any month is bad enough but when it takes pump prices to record levels, it’s bound to hurt households across the UK," said RAC fuel spokesman Simon Williams.

"Motorists are having to endure successive months of rising prices and, sadly, it doesn’t look as though February will be the last."

Leave work Friday, drive by the gas station - $3.99 a gallon

Go to work Monday, drive by the gas station - $4.38 a gallon


FUCK JOE BIDEN

BRENT CRUDE •10 mins 125.0

‘Once you cross the $4 threshold, consumers start considering all sorts of options’: Get ready for gas prices to break these records
Last Updated: March 7, 2022 at 2:01 p.m. ET
First Published: March 7, 2022 at 12:49 p.m. ET
By Andrew Keshner


‘There are few words to describe the unprecedented rise in gasoline prices over the last week.’

Americans are speeding towards a new record on average gas prices and they could bust through the July 2008 highs in a matter of days, gas cost experts said on Monday as Russia’s war continued to rage in Ukraine and roil commodity prices in America.

Over the weekend, the national average for a gallon of gas surpassed the $4 mark, inching closer to the record, which AAA said was set on July 17, 2008 at a cost of $4.11/gallon.

On Monday, national average rested — for now — at $4.06, a nickel from AAA’s record.

“We’re likely going to see a new record set this week for the national average,” AAA spokesman Devin Gladden told MarketWatch. The same goes for new records in various states, he said.

Better get ready quick, according to researchers at GasBuddy, a tech company analyzing gas station prices. The new gas price record could be here by Tuesday, if not sooner, the company said.

GasBuddy puts the national average record at $4.10, and as of late morning Monday, the average price stood at $4.08.

“There are few words to describe the unprecedented rise in gasoline prices over the last week, with massive spikes coast to coast in both gasoline and diesel prices, as oil prices jump to their highest since 2008,” Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, said in a statement.

“Forget the $4 per gallon mark, the nation will soon set new all-time record highs and we could push closer to a national average of $4.50/gal,” he added.

On Monday morning, De Haan said the new record was coming quick.

Of course, these are average prices, so the $4/gallon prices are relative bargain in some places.

In California, the average price was $5.34 on Monday, AAA said. People in the Golden State could be hurtling towards “$5.50 per gallon with more stations charging $6 and beyond,” De Haan said.

When Russia launched its assault on Russia roughly two weeks ago, U.S. President Joe Biden countered with sanctions against Russia — with a warning to American consumers about the financial pain laying ahead.

“Defending freedom will have costs for us as well, here at home. We need to be honest about that,” Biden said.

Since then, oil buyers have been turning away from Russian crude and now America and European countries are considering a formal embargo on Russian oil imports. The three major stock benchmarks were down Monday afternoon as investors weighed the potential consequences.

How high gas prices go and how long the record streak runs on crude oil prices, which are mixed in with geopolitical questions surrounding Russia and Ukraine, Gladden said.

Also remember that spring and summer are approaching, two seasons when Americans traditionally get on the road to see friends and family. Bouncing back from 2020 pandemic restrictions and worries, Americans took 6.1 billion trips during the 2021 Memorial Day Weekend. That’s was a 13% increase from 2020, but still off 2019’s 6.9 billion trips, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

Four dollars now and $4 in 2008 are not the same thing. AAA’s July 2008 record of $4.11/gallon would be $5.25 in January 2022 dollars, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation calculator.

Even though gas doesn’t cost $5 on its face in many places for now, AAA’s past consumer sentiment surveys show different numbers have different psychological impacts.

“Once you cross the $4 threshold, consumers start considering all sorts of options,” Gladden said — by the $5 mark, drivers increasingly consider other options.

That includes combining trips, carpooling, reducing idling and making sure a car is well-maintained and has good air pressure to maximize fuel efficiency, Gladden said.

“The message to consumers is we should buckle up because there’s going to be more pain at the pump as prices increase,” he said.

"When Russia launched its assault on Russia roughly two weeks ago"... did Joe Biden write this?

Russia warns West of $300 per barrel oil, cuts to EU gas supply
Mon, March 7, 2022, 3:21 PM

DUBLIN (Reuters) - Western countries could face oil prices of over $300 per barrel and the possible closure of the main Russia-Germany gas pipeline if governments follow through on threats to cut energy supplies from Russia, a senior minister said on Monday.

Oil prices spiked to their highest levels since 2008 on Monday after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington and European allies were considering banning Russian oil imports.

"It is absolutely clear that a rejection of Russian oil would lead to catastrophic consequences for the global market," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in a statement on state television.

"The surge in prices would be unpredictable. It would be $300 per barrel if not more."

Novak said it would take Europe more than a year to replace the volume of oil it receives from Russia and it would have to pay significantly higher prices.

"European politicians need to honestly warn their citizens and consumers what to expect," Novak said.

"If you want to reject energy supplies from Russia, go ahead. We are ready for it. We know where we could redirect the volumes to."

Novak said Russia, which supplies 40% of Europe's gas, was fulfilling its obligations in full but that it would be entirely within its rights to retaliate against the European Union after Germany last month froze the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

"In connection with ... the imposition of a ban on Nord Stream 2, we have every right to take a matching decision and impose an embargo on gas pumping through the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline," Novak said.

"So far we are not taking such a decision," he said. "But European politicians with their statements and accusations against Russia push us towards that."

We only get 3% of our oil from Russia, it won't affect us much. Europe, on the other hand, is SOLJWF.

The Wise And Powerful wrote:

I predict $150 by next week.

We're getting there - BRENT CRUDE •10 mins 132.8

Seems to be dropping today - BRENT CRUDE •10 mins 109.9

Of course this means prices at the pump will follow suit... in about three months.

oliver clotheshoffe wrote:

Seems to be dropping today - BRENT CRUDE •10 mins 109.9

Of course this means prices at the pump will follow suit... in about three months.

I'll stick with my $150 a barrel prediction.
_____

Biden’s ban on Russian imports means $150 per barrel of oil, a $5 gallon of gas or higher, and a 1 in 3 recession risk: Moody’s
Will Daniel | FORTUNE
Tue, March 8, 2022, 1:58 PM MST

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could mean oil prices as high as $150 per barrel and a one in three risk of recession in the U.S., Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said on Tuesday.

“It’s a big surprise to me that the U.S. and others are self-sanctioning Russian oil. Over 3 million barrels a day of Russian oil needs to be replaced, fast,” Zandi said. “The Saudis and UAE have excess capacity, and there is Iranian oil. U.S. frackers will kick in. But all this will take time.”

If his prediction is correct, oil’s rise could mean sustained gas prices above $5 a gallon in the U.S., the economist noted. That coupled with a nearly 5 percentage point jump in the risk of recession from December’s 27.8% figure has Zandi worried.

In a speech this morning announcing a ban on Russian oil imports, President Biden warned Americans of higher prices ahead as well. “With this action, it (oil) is going to go up further,” he said, calling the rising gas prices "Putin's price hike.”

“Russia’s aggression has cost us all, and it’s no time for profiteering or price gouging,” the president added in a warning to gas stations seeking to profit off of the announcement.

What does a high oil price mean for inflation?

Zandi, who had predicted inflation would fall if COVID-19 continued its retreat back in late 2021, changed his tune on the threat of rising consumer prices this week, arguing darker days are ahead. Inflation expectations threaten “to become unhinged” after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he said.

The Moody's economist pointed to the 5-year breakeven inflation rate, a measure of what market participants expect inflation to be in the next five years, as evidence for his claim after the figure hit a record high of 3.29% on Monday.

Zandi wasn’t the only energy market expert predicting $150 per barrel oil on Tuesday, either. Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s CEO Vicki Hollub said she sees Brent crude oil prices, the international benchmark, rising to $150 per barrel as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues.

David Rundell, who served as an American diplomat for 30 years in the Middle East, previously told Fortune that the deteriorating state of diplomatic affairs with Saudi leaders is only adding to the gloomy story for U.S. energy costs. The diplomat went even further than Zandi with a prediction that $6 per gallon gas could be in the cards for U.S. consumers over the coming year as geopolitical tensions mount.

Top Traders See Oil Topping $200 By End Of 2022



Some of the world’s biggest oil traders expect oil prices to exceed $200 per barrel by the end of the year, the Financial Times reported, citing opinions shared at its Commodity Global Summit this week.

“Wakey, wakey. We are not going back to normal business in a few months,” said Pierre Andurand, who has been super bullish on oil for a while. “I think we’re losing the Russian supply on the European side forever.”

The hedge fund manager first made his $200-per-barrel forecast earlier this month, saying that producers ranging from African members of OPEC+ to the U.S. shale patch will struggle to replace the Russian crude going off the market.

Yet Andurand is neither the only superbull nor the biggest one. Doug King, the chairman of RCMA Group, told the FT that crude oil could top $200 and reach $250 by the end of the year.

“This is not transitory. This is going to be a crude supply shock,” King told the FT summit.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Top-Oil-Traders-See-Oil-Topping-200-By-End-2022.html

Only the first two minutes discusses oil prices.