Unemployment Stats

More than $200 billion in unemployment aid may have gone to fraudsters in the pandemic
Denitsa Tsekova·Reporter
Mon, March 15, 2021, 2:35 PM

A significant chunk of the government support reserved for unemployed Americans went to fraudsters instead during the pandemic, according to new estimates.

More than $200 billion of unemployment benefits distributed in the pandemic may have been pocketed by thieves, according to ID.me, a computer security service that 19 states — accounting for 75% of the national population — use to verify worker identities. That's more than triple the official government estimate of $63 billion based on the 10% pre-pandemic fraud rate.

"The level of fraud is truly unprecedented," Blake Hall, CEO and cofounder of ID.me, told Yahoo Money. "The main driver is the PUA program... For criminals, this program essentially makes every American and their identity a target."

Up to 30% of claims under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA), the program that provides benefits to self-employed and contractors, are fraudulent, according to data by ID.me.

'The nature of what you're setting up is very vulnerable'

Generally, unemployment programs are vulnerable to fraud because eligibility rules can change quickly. That was especially true during the pandemic when new programs were established. Then there was the sheer scope: Around 30 million Americans were relying on jobless benefits last spring.

Add in the fact that the benefits increased in value per person — first the additional $600 per week under the CARES Act and then $300 extra a week under various other actions — and the programs became a lightning rod for fraud, especially from professional criminals.

"Unemployment is a program that certainly has a high rate of overpayment," Andrew Stettner, an unemployment insurance expert and senior fellow at the Century Foundation, told Yahoo Money. "What's different about this period is the level of organized crime activities targeting unemployment insurance is definitely unprecedented."

Around 20% of the fraud is linked to breached personal data, up to 10% is through social engineering, and 2.5% are linked to face matching, where a criminal tries to use a mask, video, or image of the victim, according to Hall.

Verifying the identity of a self-employed or freelance worker is more complicated than confirming a worker's income with a traditional employer. There are no employer wage records to help verify that worker's income.

"You wanted to extend eligibility to people that are not in the system like gig workers, the self-employed," Stettner said. "The nature of what you're setting up is very vulnerable."

'Choose those states that they could get the most per person'

Criminal enterprises targeted California, Oregon, Massachusetts, and Washington — some of the states with the highest per week unemployment benefits, according to Stettner.

"Organized crime rings in Russia, China, Nigeria ,and Ghana, and prisoners and petty thieves have made it their job to exploit the pandemic and creatively work to steal funds from state agencies, including PUA funds from the federal government," Hall said.

California, which paid at least $11.4 billion in fraudulent claims according to reporting by the Los Angeles Times, was also targeted because it relies on debit cards for distributing the benefits, according to Stettner.

Fraud losses in Washington are expected to total $600 million as of June 2020, amounting to 122,000 known or suspected fraudulent claims, according to a report from the Office of the Washington State Auditor. In Massachusetts, up to $687 million is estimated to be paid for fraudulent claims as of February, according to the state's Department of Unemployment Assistance.

"They pick and choose those states that they could get the most per person off of," Stettner said.

Some states like Colorado have been effective in turning back fraudulent unemployment claims. The state estimates it prevented 1.1 million fraudulent claims from being paid out — potentially worth $7 billion — since the start of the pandemic.

After the $900 billion stimulus package was signed into law in December, more protections against unemployment benefits fraud were put in place. For example, many states now require picture-based or two-factor identity verification as well as additional documentation to verify your lost employment.

"We are currently working with 22 states (live in 19) to combat unemployment fraud," Hall said. "We were working with just one state in July 2020. The states have moved quickly to upgrade their defenses."

Jobless claims preview: Another 700,000 Americans likely filed new unemployment claims
Emily McCormick·Reporter, Yahoo Finance
Wed, March 17, 2021, 10:54 AM

U.S. new weekly jobless claims likely fell to a fresh pandemic-era low last week amid a wave of abating social distancing restrictions and improving weather.

The Department of Labor is set to release its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are the main metrics expected in the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:

Initial jobless claims, week ended March 13: 700,000 expected vs. 712,000 during the prior week

Continuing claims, week ended March 6: 4.034 million expected vs. 4.144 million during the prior week

Initial unemployment claims are expected to hold below 800,000 for a fourth consecutive week and fall to levels not seen since early March 2020. Still, at 700,000, initial jobless claims would remain above the Great Recession-era high of 665,000 from 2009. And new claims still need to fall significantly further to return to 2019 levels, when new claims averaged just over 200,000 per week.

Still, the extended stretch of decreases in new jobless claims over the past several months has pointed to an economy on the upswing, even as temporary factors like harsh winter weather generated some noise in the data last month. Trends in new jobless claims are only expected to improve further into the spring and summer as the vaccine rollout continues and COVID-19 case counts retreat further. Just last week, President Joe Biden announced that he would direct states to make all citizens eligible for vaccinations by May 1, rapidly expanding the potential for the country to achieve herd immunity in the near-term.

"We expect jobless claims to continue to improve as the latest wave of the virus subsides and restrictions are lifted," Deutsche Bank economist Brett Ryan said in a note. "These data take on added significance as they correspond to the survey period for March employment, where we expect to see a notable pick up in hiring."

Continuing claims, which measure the total number of Americans still receiving state unemployment benefits, are also expected to show a ninth straight week of declines. These improvements have come both as a result of rehirings, and as individuals unemployed for more than six months rolled off regular state programs and onto longer-term federal unemployment benefits.

As of late February, more than 20 million Americans were still claiming benefits across all programs — a level that remains historically elevated, but down significantly from the more than 30 million claimants reported just seven months earlier. Last week's data showed that about 13.8 million Americans were on either Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) — the federal program offering benefits to gig workers and the self-employed who do not qualify for other programs — or Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC), which offers additional weeks of federal benefits to those who have exhausted their state benefits.

Both the PUA and PEUC were extended from mid-March until Sept. 6, based on the latest $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package passed earlier this month.

This post will be updated with the results of the Labor Department's weekly jobless claims report Thursday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. Check back for updates.

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Jobless claims preview: Another 730,000 Americans likely filed new unemployment claims
Emily McCormick·Reporter, Yahoo Finance
Wed, March 24, 2021, 12:20 PM

U.S. states are expected to have seen a drop in initial unemployment claims filings last week, albeit to a level that would still reflect a weak labor market compared to pre-pandemic conditions.

The Department of Labor is set to release its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:

Initial jobless claims, week ended March 20: 730,000 expected vs. 770,000 during the prior week

Continuing claims, week ended March 13: 4 million expected vs. 4.124 million during the prior week

Initial unemployment claims likely held below 800,000 for a fifth straight week and declined after last week's unexpected jump in new claims. The year-over-year improvements will be even more pronounced: During the same week in 2020, new claims rocketed to more than 3 million as the pandemic's initial impacts reverberated across the labor market.

But while claims have come down considerably from those highs, they remain sharply elevated from 2019 levels, when new claims averaged just over 200,000 per week. Plus, improvements have stagnated in recent months, and claims have yet to break below levels seen in November.

And based on the total of claimants counted across all unemployment programs, a staggering number of Americans remain out of work. As of the end of February, more than 18 million individuals were still claiming unemployment benefits of some form, including via the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, which offers extended benefits to those who have exhausted their regular state insurance.

The slow march forward for labor market progress has not been lost on policymakers. In congressional testimony on earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services that "we should be clear-eyed about the hole we're digging out of" even as the data shows some signs of recovery, given that the country is still down by nearly 10 million jobs compared to its pre-pandemic peak.

Still, many economists are optimistic the rebound will pick up momentum in the coming weeks and months, especially with the vaccination program accelerating across the country.

"With the increased pace of COVID-19 vaccinations, federal stimulus spending and winter’s grip easing across much of the country, it is quite reasonable to harbor upbeat expectations for the U.S. economy," Mark Hamrick, senior economist analyst at Bankrate, wrote in a note. "This should be reflected in more of the economic data in the months ahead."

New unemployment claims jump to 719,000, but spike likely temporary as U.S. economy strengthens
Last Updated: April 1, 2021 at 9:54 a.m. ET
First Published: April 1, 2021 at 8:40 a.m. ET
By Jeffry Bartash

The numbers: New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits rose in late March, but they’re likely to be begin falling again soon as the economy revs up, governments loosen pandemic-related restrictions and companies seek to hire more workers.

Initial jobless claims filed traditionally through the states jumped 61,000 to 719,000 in the week ended March 27, the government said Thursday.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones and the Wall Street Journal had forecast new claims would fall to a seasonally adjusted 675,000.

New state claims had fallen to a pandemic low of 658,000 two weeks ago.

Another 237,025 applications for benefits were filed last week through a temporary federal relief program. These numbers are unadjusted.

Combined state and federal jobless claims totaled an unadjusted 951,548 last week. Two weeks ago, they fell below 1 million for the first time since the start of the pandemic.

What happened: New claims rose the most in Virginia, along with smaller increases in Kentucky, Georgia, New Jersey and California.

They fell the most in Ohio, Massachusetts and Florida.

The number of people already collecting traditional unemployment benefits, meanwhile, declined by 46,000 to a seasonally adjusted 3.79 million. These so-called continuing claims are now at the lowest level in a year.

The decline is not quite as steep as it seems, however. An additional 5.5 million people who have exhausted state compensation were reportedly getting extra benefits through an emergency program funded by the federal government.

Taken together the number of people reportedly collecting benefits from eight separate state and federal programs was reported at an unadjusted 18.2 million as of March 13.

By contrast, fewer than 2 million people were getting benefits before the pandemic erupted.

Jobless claims preview: Another 680,000 Americans likely filed new claims
Emily McCormick·Reporter
Wed, April 7, 2021, 12:06 PM

New weekly jobless claims likely fell back below 700,000 last week after an unexpected rise in late March, with more rehiring taking place across the recovering economy.

The Department of Labor is set to release its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:

Initial jobless claims, week ended April 3: 680,000 expected and 719,000 during the prior week

Continuing claims, week ended March 27: 3.638 million expected and 3.794 million during the prior week

New weekly jobless claims data have been sliding lower over the course of 2021 so far, though they still remain elevated relative to historical trends. At 680,000, initial jobless claims would still be about on par with the high of 665,000 new claims filed at the worst point of the Great Recession in March 2009. And the data continue to be choppy, with last week's new claims unexpectedly rising off a pandemic-era low.

But overall, the latest claims data "have been improving lately, with a downward trend reported since early in January that generally has coincided with vaccine distribution and a reduction in new COVID-19 cases," JPMorgan economist Bruce Kasman wrote in a note. "Initial claims did jump in the latest weekly report, but the four-week moving average for regular state filings hit its lowest level in over a year."

A spate of better-than-expected labor market data corroborated these trends. The March jobs report showed a staggering 916,000 payrolls were brought back, and employment indexes in the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing and services indexes each advanced last month. Job openings reached a two-year high in February.

Individual companies have also announced a pick-up in rehiring to keep pace with rising consumer demand, with Southwest (LUV) and other air carriers announcing plans to recall hundreds of pilots who had been on extended leave during the pandemic. These signs of an impending travel surge also bode well for other services industries, which had been hit hard by anemic demand over the past year.

Still, a persistently massive number of Americans remain out of work, based on the number of claimants across all programs. As of mid-March, about 18.2 million individuals were still claiming unemployment benefits of some form. That included nearly 12.9 million Americans on the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, the latter of which offers extended benefits to those who have exhausted their regular state insurance.

Jobless claims: Another 744,000 Americans filed new claims last week
Emily McCormick·Reporter
Thu, April 8, 2021, 6:30 AM·

New weekly jobless claims unexpectedly held above 700,000 last week to extend a rise from late March, despite other signs that rehiring has been taking place across the recovering economy.

The Department of Labor released its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:

Initial jobless claims, week ended April 3: 744,000 vs. 680,000 expected and a revised 728,000 during the prior week

Continuing claims, week ended March 27: 3.734 million vs. 3.638 million expected and a revised 3.750 million during the prior week

New weekly jobless claims data have generally been following a downtrend over the course of 2021, though they still remain elevated relative to historical trends. At 744,000, initial jobless claims remained well above the high of 665,000 new claims filed at the worst point of the Great Recession in March 2009. And the data continue to be choppy, with each of the last two weeks' worth of new claims unexpectedly rising off a pandemic-era low.

But overall, the latest claims data "have been improving lately, with a downward trend reported since early in January that generally has coincided with vaccine distribution and a reduction in new COVID-19 cases," JPMorgan economist Bruce Kasman wrote in a recent note. "Initial claims did jump in the latest weekly report, but the four-week moving average for regular state filings hit its lowest level in over a year."

A spate of better-than-expected labor market data corroborated these trends. The March jobs report showed a staggering 916,000 payrolls were brought back, and employment indexes in the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing and services indexes each advanced last month. Job openings reached a two-year high in February.

Individual companies have also announced a pick-up in rehiring to keep pace with rising consumer demand, with Southwest (LUV) and other air carriers announcing plans to recall hundreds of pilots who had been on extended leave during the pandemic. These signs of an impending travel surge also bode well for other services industries, which had been hit hard by anemic demand over the past year.

Still, a persistently massive number of Americans remain out of work, based on the number of claimants across all programs. As of the week ended March 20, 18.2 million individuals were still claiming unemployment benefits of some form. That included more than 13 million Americans on the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, the latter of which offers extended benefits to those who have exhausted their regular state insurance.

State-by-state unemployment

Some of the most populous U.S. states contributed heavily to the increase in new jobless claims last week. California's new claims increased by nearly 39,000 on an unadjusted basis to reach more than 145,000, New York's initial claims rose by nearly 16,000 to about 67,000.

Other states reported notable decreases in new claims. Alabama and Ohio each posted drops in unadjusted new claims of more than 10,000, though these and other drops were not enough to offset increases elsewhere.

For the week ended March 20, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Nevada, Alaska and Pennsylvania comprised the areas with the greatest insured unemployment rates – or ratios of those claiming unemployment benefits to the total sizes of states' labor forces. Puerto Rico's insured unemployment rate totaled 6.0%, while the insured unemployment rate in the Virgin Islands was 5.6%. Nevada had an insured jobless rate of 5.3%, while Alaska's and Pennsylvania's rates each came in at 5%. This compared to a national insured unemployment rate of 2.9%.

Initial jobless claims drop to fresh pandemic-era low of 576,000
Emily McCormick·Reporter·Yahoo Finance
Thu, April 15, 2021, 6:31 AM

New weekly jobless claims plunged to a pandemic-era low after last week's unexpected jump, with the labor market's choppy recovery closely following the trajectory of new COVID-19 infections.

The Department of Labor released its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:

Initial jobless claims, week ended April 10: 576,000 vs. 700,000 expected and a revised 769,000 during the prior week

Continuing claims, week ended April 3: 3.731 million vs. 3.700 million expected vs. 3.727 million during the prior week

Initial unemployment claims were expected to hold at or above the 700,000 level for a third consecutive week, remaining close to levels from November. Instead, new claims unexpectedly broke below the Great Recession-era high of 665,000 new claims filed in March 2009 for the first time in more than a year.

“With a huge, better-than-expected decline in new claims for unemployment assistance, at long last the economic recovery appears to be picking up speed," Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, said in an email Thursday morning. "Not only did the headline number of seasonally adjusted initial claims drop beneath the 700,000 level, but it continued on below 600,000 to the lowest since mid-March of 2020.”

Prior to Thursday, the recent batch of greater-than-expected new jobless claims contrasted with the improving trend in other U.S. labor market data reported as of late. Though the latest jobless claims print fell far more than expected, the prior week's new claims were revised up further to 769,000, from the 744,000 previously reported. Yet March payrolls rose by a whopping 916,000, and employment indexes in the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing and services indexes each advanced in the latest prints.

According to JPMorgan Chase economist Michael Feroli, one reason for this could be that the additional $300 in weekly unemployment insurance offered through the latest COVID-19 relief package may be incentivizing more individuals to file. But not every first-time filer will actually be authorized to receive benefits, he added.

"One clue to resolving this puzzle is to stress the ‘claim’ in jobless claims. When someone files for benefits they are claiming they are eligible for unemployment insurance. It’s the state labor agencies, however, who actually determine whether the claimants truly are eligible," Feroli wrote in a note.

"Historically, about 45% of initial claims resulted in a first payment of benefits. Over the last few months, fewer than 25% of initial claims generated a first payment of benefits," he added. "Why is this so? One reason may be that the $300 weekly bonus payments are encouraging more people to give filing a shot—the payoff from a successful claim is significantly greater than before the pandemic."

That said, the number of claimants receiving unemployment benefits remained sharply elevated. Continuing claims totaled more than 3.7 million in early April, coming in higher than expected and remaining sharply above the weekly average of fewer than 1.8 million continuing claimants throughout 2019.

And nearly 17 million Americans were receiving benefits across all programs as of late March. That included more than 12 million Americans on the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, the latter of which offers extended benefits to those who have exhausted their regular state insurance.

State-by-state unemployment

The headline drop in new unemployment claims last week came largely as a result of significant drops in a handful of states.

California, the most populous U.S. state, posted a drop of more than 75,000 new claims on an unadjusted basis, while new claims in each of Virginia and Ohio also fell by more than 20,000.

Other states continued to grapple with persistently elevated insured unemployment rates, which measures the number of those receiving unemployment benefits as a percent of the total state-wide labor force. Nevada's insured unemployment rate was the highest in the nation at 5.2% for the week ended March 27. This was followed closely thereafter by Connecticut and Alaska, which posted insured unemployment rates of 5.0% and 4.7%, respectively.

This compared to a national unemployment rate of 2.8%, which ticked down by 0.1 percentage points from the prior week.

U.S. weekly jobless claims hit 13-month low; home sales tumble
Lucia Mutikani, Reuters
Thu, April 22, 2021, 6:38 AM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to a 13-month low last week, suggesting layoffs were subsiding and strengthening expectations for another month of blockbuster job growth in April as a re-opening economy unleashes pent-up demand.

While the labor market recovery is gaining speed, red flags are emerging in the housing market, the economy's star performer during the COVID-19 pandemic. Sales of previously-owned homes tumbled to a seven-month low in March as prices jumped to a record high amid an acute shortage of houses, other data showed on Thursday. Realtors warned that expensive homes could become a permanent feature of the market, worsening inequality.

Even as the economy is booming and the labor market scars are healing thanks to massive public aid from the government and increased COVID-19 vaccinations, there are still 17.4 million people collecting unemployment checks.

"We are seeing claims drop across most states, which shows the jobs recovery has become more geographically broad-based," said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union in Vienna, Virginia. "However, a growing number of Americans are out of work for longer, and it's those who are tougher to bring back into the labor force."

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 39,000 to a seasonally adjusted 547,000 for the week ended April 17, the lowest since mid-March 2020, the Labor Department said.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 617,000 applications for the latest week.

It was the second straight week that claims were below the 700,000 level since March 2020 when mandatory shutdowns of non-essential businesses like restaurants and bars were enforced to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections. There were large declines in filings in Texas and New York, as well as decreases in several other states.

Claims have remained elevated because of fraud, especially in California and Ohio. The enhancement of the unemployment benefits programs, including a weekly $300 subsidy, could also be encouraging some people to attempt to file a claim for assistance, though not every application is approved.

The latest Labor Department data on first payments show only a fraction of claims were successful over the past months.

The weekly subsidy and the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program will run through Sept. 6. Claims jumped to a record 6.149 million in early April 2020. In a healthy labor market, claims are normally in a range of 200,000 to 250,000.

Including the PUA program, 699,798 people filed claims last week, squeaking below 700,000 for the first time since the pandemic started.

Stocks on Wall Street were mixed. The dollar gained versus a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices fell.

For a graphic on A pandemic employment milestone:

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/yzdpxbjbwpx/Pasted%20image%201619095394429.png

BROAD IMPROVEMENT

The United States has expanded COVID-19 vaccination eligibility to most American adults, and more than half that population has had at least one dose of a vaccine, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A third of U.S. adults are fully vaccinated, as well as 26% of the population overall, it said.

That, together with the White House's $1.9 trillion pandemic rescue package, has allowed for broader economic re-engagement. The resulting surge in demand has left businesses scrambling for workers. Retail sales raced to a record high in March and factories are humming.

Last week's claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed business establishments for the nonfarm payrolls component of April's employment report. First-time filings have dropped from 765,000 in mid-March, boosting hopes for strong employment gains in April.

The economy created 916,000 jobs in March, the most in seven months. Employment, however, remains 8.4 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.

"Job growth in the spring of 2021 is receiving a boost as better weather allows for more outdoor activity," said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. "Job growth will remain very strong throughout 2021 and into 2022 thanks to vaccination efforts and stimulus payments that are supporting consumer spending."

But the housing market is backpedaling. Existing home sales dropped 3.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.01 million units last month, the lowest level since August 2020, the National Association of Realtors said in a separate report on Thursday. The plunge reflected a supply squeeze, which boosted the median house price a record 17.2% from a year ago to an all-time high of $329,100.

Sales are skewed towards large and more expensive homes. The NAR reported intense bidding wars, which it said could lead to discrimination against some buyers.

"Without an increase in supply, the society wealth division will widen with homeowners enjoying sizable equity gains while renters will struggle to become homeowners," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR.

Still, housing remains supported by the recovering labor market. The claims report showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid decreased 34,000 to 3.674 million in the week ended April 10.

The so-called continuing claims have declined from 23.1 million at the height of the crisis. Part of the drop is likely because of people finding work and exhausting their eligibility for benefits, which is limited to 26 weeks in most states.

For a graphic on Pandemic jobless relief rolls remain high:

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/azgvoxyxopd/Pasted%20image%201619095828488.png

About 5.6 million people were on extended benefits during the week ended April 3. Another 492,999 were on a state program for those who have exhausted their initial six months of aid. There were 17.405 million people receiving benefits under all programs in early April.

Jobless claims: Another 553,000 Americans filed new jobless claims last week, declining over the prior week
Emily McCormick
Emily McCormick, Reporter, Yahoo Finance
Thu, April 29, 2021, 6:31 AM

New weekly jobless claims dropped from the prior week's upwardly revised level to a fresh pandemic-era low last week, with the accelerating pace of COVID-19 vaccinations in the U.S. helping support the labor market's recovery.

The Department of Labor released its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:

Initial jobless claims, week ended April 24: 553,000 vs. 540,000 expected and an upwardly revised 566,000 during the prior week

Continuing claims, week ended April 17: 3.660 million vs. 3.590 million expected and a downwardly revised 3.651 million during the prior week

New jobless claims held below 600,000 for a third straight week, dipping to the lowest level since mid-March 2020 before the COVID-19 pandemic dealt a major blow to the U.S. economy. During the comparable week last year, new weekly jobless claims totaled nearly 3.5 million.

Though headline new claims have been on the decline, an elevated number of Americans have still been sidelined from the labor market. More than 16.5 million Americans were still receiving unemployment benefits across all programs as of mid-April, for a decrease of nearly 1 million from the previous week. That included more than 12 million Americans on the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, which both expire in September.

But with the economic recovery now well under way, an emergent concern has become the paucity of qualified workers to fill open roles, according to many reports. The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book for April noted that "hiring remained a widespread challenge, particularly for low-wage or hourly workers, restraining job growth in some cases."

"A growing number of employers report struggling to find qualified workers, particularly for entry level or lower wage positions," Bankrate senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick said in an email. "The hard-hit leisure and hospitality sector, including bars and restaurants, appears to be ground zero for this challenge."

Still, the overall data have pointed to a strongly positive trend in the job market's recovery trajectory. The Conference Board's April consumer confidence survey released earlier this week showed a labor market differential – or difference between those saying jobs are "plentiful" versus those characterizing them as "hard to get" – that jumped significantly to 24.7 from 8.0 in March. And the overall consumer confidence index rose to the highest level since February 2020, suggesting consumers were feeling better about economic prospects and might be more apt to go out and spend and stimulate even further hiring as reopenings took place.

State-by-state unemployment

By state, Texas accounted for a significant portion of the drop in new jobless claims last week, with initial filings in the state dropping by nearly 20,000 on a seasonally unadjusted basis. Wisconsin also posted a notable decline of nearly 8,000 new claims, and Georgia saw a drop of nearly 7,000.

On the other hand, Virginia posted the largest increase in unadjusted new claims at more than 29,000, bringing total new filings in the state to about 43,000 last week. Michigan, which has been contending with a spike in COVID-19 cases this month, saw new filings rise by 7,200 to about 30,000.

And other states remained the leaders in terms of their insured unemployment rates, or ratio of individuals receiving unemployment insurance to the total population. Nevada again posted the greatest insured unemployment rate in the country at 5.9%, with this rate creeping higher for a second straight week. Connecticut's insured unemployment rate was the second highest at 5.3%, while Alaska's came in third at 4.9%. This compared to a national insured unemployment rate of 2.6%.

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New jobless claims fall to fresh pandemic-era lows
Thu, May 6, 2021, 9:36 AM

Sevens Report Research Founder & President Tom Essaye joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the latest market action following better-than-expected jobless claims.

ZACK GUZMAN: This time, for the first time in the pandemic, coming in below 500,000 and better than the expectations economists had, the total number 498,000 versus the 538,000 expected. That was down from 590,000 the week prior. For more on what it says about where we're at in the jobs recovery, let's bring in Tom Essaye, Sevens Report Research founder and president here joins us now. Tom, appreciate you taking the time to chat. What do the numbers say to you about where we're at in this recovery, especially ahead of tomorrow's big jobs report?

TOM ESSAYE: Good morning, everyone, and thank you for having me on. We're continuing to recover, right? I mean, you now have claims below 500,000. This is back into sort of a historically normal range for a slow growing economy. Not the economy we have now, but obviously this is a unique circumstance.

And we also have to look at jobless claims in a bit of a different light than we typically do. Because of all the federal unemployment additional benefits, there is a portion of the workforce that will not go back to work right now, frankly, because they're getting paid a decent amount of money to stay at home and, in some instances, if they feel they need to stay safe. So, there's clearly improvement. And that's a good thing. And we expect it will continue. It should be a very good report tomorrow.

AKIKO FUJITA: How big of a concern, though, is that supply side you talked about? We've heard from a number of companies who've said that it's hard to get some of these workers back right now. If we're talking sort of on the business side of things, you know, how big of a headwind do you anticipate that to be if, in fact, it really is about workers not wanting to return because the benefits of staying home outweigh the risk right now.

TOM ESSAYE: Sure, well, first of all, a lot of these benefits will expire in September, right? So we'll get back to what should hopefully be a much more normal labor market then. But in the meantime, it's a huge headwind. Hopefully, y'all have been able to go out to restaurants. I talk to people who own restaurants all the time. They cannot find people in Florida to come work.

I saw a statistic this morning. 16 million people still claiming some sort of unemployment assistance. Yet many corporations can't find people to fill positions. And as a result, they're not generating as much revenue as they would hope because they can't find the labor. So, this is a problem. It's going to become a bigger problem. And guess what's going to happen? It's going to push wages up, which just adds another tailwind on inflation in the short term.

ZACK GUZMAN: Yeah, I mean, we've been hearing that potentially becoming a problem when it comes to maybe shifting the Fed's timeline and raising rates as well on the inflation front. But we'll get that update, I suppose, very soon. When you look at how it might impact the market, though, how does that maybe counteract maybe some of this cyclical rotation we've seen when it comes to maybe sectors levered to labor costs, like restaurants, as you said, having trouble to attract the workers they need?

TOM ESSAYE: Yeah, I think it's going to put pressure on profit margins, right? So in the cyclical space, I don't think, really, we're seeing the market trade off of, say, future earnings growth. I think you're just seeing a big rotation, and people are looking at, gee. You know, we could put up a 13% Q2 GDP number. I mean, I never thought I would ever see anything like that in this country. So I think you're seeing investors rotate into the cyclicals, your financials, your industrials, your consumer discretionaries, just based on this rising tide, right, of the economy reopening. And that's probably still got a while to run.

But once we exit the summer and hopefully everything's back to normal, we're going to see this market turn back towards the old school, the fundamentals, how much the earnings growth. And I think we should all brace for more volatility. This is going to be a more volatile market over the next six months compared to the last six months.

AKIKO FUJITA: Tom Essaye is Sevens Report Research founder and president. It's good to get your insight today. Thanks so much for stopping by.

US jobs figures fall far short of expectations
Published 2 hours ago

US employers hired fewer workers than expected last month despite a huge stimulus package that saw the government send $1,400 (£1,000) cheques to most Americans.

Just 266,000 jobs were added in April and the unemployment rate edged up to 6.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

It said a hiring spree among leisure and hospitality businesses was offset by declining courier numbers.

In all, 9.8 million remain unemployed.

In February 2020, before lockdowns forced millions into unemployment, 5.7 million people were out of work.

In March, the Biden administration pushed through the $1.9tn stimulus package.

The latest jobs figures were well below the expectations of economists, who had predicted that the gain would be anywhere from 900,000 to 2 million jobs.

That would have been well ahead of the 770,000 jobs that were added in March, which was considered a sign that America's economic recovery was gaining pace.

In a speech on Friday to "put today's jobs report in perspective," President Joe Biden said the new job numbers "show we're on the right track".

He defended his bailout as a "year-long effort to rescue our country" and dismissed suggestions "we should be disappointed".

His speech came after his Democratic party ally, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, issued a statement calling the April report "disappointing" and for Congress to approve more funds for infrastructure spending.

"Today's disappointing jobs numbers will heighten investor caution and raise concerns around the resilience of the US labour market - and to what extent the pace of the Covid-19 vaccination programme will boost economic activity and employment," said Richard Flynn, UK managing director at Charles Schwab.

"However, across economic metrics - from GDP to retail sales to job growth - boom conditions are evident," he said. "We are yet to see the full effect of this since the unemployment rate is one of the most lagging of economic indicators."

Despite the weaker-than-expected data, the numbers are a marked improvement compared to the same period a year ago, when lockdowns put more than 20 million people out of work.

"While the labour market continues to recover, today's report suggests that the jobs recovery may not be quite as rapid as many had expected," said Mike Bell, global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management.

"There was continued strong jobs growth in the leisure and hospitality sector but these gains were partially offset by declines in business services and transportation and warehousing, manufacturing and retail also saw small declines in employment."

Disappointing figures show comeback is far from complete
By Samira Hussain, BBC News, New York

In a word: "Wow". The massive economic recovery that many were expecting in America did not materialise in this latest jobs report.

The US economy added only 266,000 jobs in April, a far cry from estimates that ranged anywhere from 900,000 jobs to possibly even 2 million.

This discouraging employment report comes as coronavirus infection rates are declining and businesses are reopening.

Unsurprisingly, many of the gains came in the leisure and hospitality sectors as bars and restaurants reopened. But it is other sectors such as retail where hiring is stagnant.

Some economists had warned of a fitful economic recovery.

One disappointing jobs report does not mean the country's economy is in trouble.

But this is evidence it may take a lot longer for the US to make its economic comeback.

The slowdown in hiring was "very probably" not a result of weaker demand for workers, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

"We know from endless surveys that labour demand is very strong, but we also know from both surveys and media-reported anecdotes that firms are finding it hard to recruit people," he said.

He said that the data "made it much easier" to argue that putting up unemployment benefits by $300 a week in the March relief bill had "crimped labour supply".

Some states agree with that argument. Both South Carolina and Montana have said they will stop unemployment benefits offered by the federal government from being paid to their citizens.

They are worried that the extra money is more likely to persuade people to stay at home, keeping them out of the workforce. Instead, Montana is offering $1,200 to those who return to work.

Jobless claims: Initial filings dipped to a new pandemic era low last week
Emily McCormick·Reporter
Thu, May 13, 2021, 6:30 AM

Initial unemployment claims dropped more than expected to a fresh pandemic-era low, with new filings inching back toward pre-pandemic levels as more vaccinated Americans return to work and in-person activities.

The Department of Labor released its weekly report on new jobless claims Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:

Initial jobless claims, week ended May 8: 473,000 vs. 490,000 expected and an upwardly revised 507,000 during prior week

Continuing claims, week ended May 1: 3.655 million vs. 3.650 million expected and an upwardly revised 3.700 million during prior week

Weekly jobless claims have nearly halved since the start of 2021, and have fallen precipitously from their pandemic-era high of more than 6 million last year. The last several months' worth of marked improvements coincided with a fast-ramping vaccination program in the U.S., and widespread easing of social distancing restrictions across many states. Prior to the pandemic, new jobless claims averaged just over 200,000 per week throughout 2019.

"Net, claims fell more than expected last week. Filings are well below 796K, on average, in the first quarter. But the level remains higher than an average 218K in 2019," Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, wrote in an email Thursday morning. "The reopening is continuing, and businesses are less constrained by restrictions. We expect layoffs to ease further as the economy move closer towards normal capacity."

But improvements in the Labor Department's weekly jobless claims figures belie some ongoing strain in the labor market, even as more businesses reopen. Friday's jobs report showed a sharply disappointing 266,000 jobs returned in April, for a print well below the 1 million payroll additions expected. And the economy remains more than 8 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels, the data showed.

Many businesses have now cited labor supply constraints, rather than a lack of demand for employees, as the key concern. A report earlier this week showed that job openings in the U.S. hit a record high of more than 8 million in March, far exceeding expectations. Some economists have pointed to enhanced unemployment benefits as a factor contributing to these shortages, especially in the service sector, as federal COVID-era jobless benefits make staying on the sidelines of the workforce a competitive alternative to working a lower-wage job.

"Labor supply appears to be tighter than the unemployment rate suggests, likely reflecting the impact of unusually generous unemployment benefits and lingering virus-related impediments to working," Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a note this week about the April jobs report. He added, however, that "it is hard to know how exactly much of the miss these factors account for."

Headline new claims aside, the Labor Department's weekly reports continue to show that an elevated, albeit improving, number of Americans are still unemployed. More than 16.8 million Americans were still receiving unemployment benefits across all programs during the week ended April 24, for an increase of nearly 700,000 compared to the prior week. That included more than 12 million Americans on the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs.

State-by-state unemployment

By state, Michigan saw the largest drop in initial filings last week, coinciding with improving virus trends following a recent surge in COVID-19 cases. New filings in the state dropped by more than 14,500 on an unadjusted basis. Michigan was followed by a wide margin by New York, which saw new claims drop by 8,400 last week.

Other states saw notable increases in new jobless claims. Georgia saw 7,000 new claims filed last week, Washington state reported 5,600.

Meanwhile, some states posted insured unemployment rates well above the national average, signaling a elevated levels of claimants relative to the states' total populations. Nevada's insured unemployment rate totaled 6.4%, for the week ended April 24, rising from 6.2% during the prior week. Connecticut's insured unemployment rate came in at second-highest in the nation at 4.9%, for a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous week. Rhode Island jumped to the third-highest in the country with an insured unemployment rate of 4.6%.

During the week ended April 24, the national insured unemployment rate was 2.7%.

Unemployment claims fall to new pandemic low of 406,000 as layoffs wane
Last Updated: May 27, 2021 at 9:28 a.m. ET
First Published: May 27, 2021 at 8:43 a.m. ET
By Jeffry Bartash

The numbers: New applications for regular unemployment benefits fell in late May for the fourth week in a row as the U.S. economic recovery from the waning coronavirus pandemic induced companies to hire more workers.

Initial jobless claims sank 38,000 to 406,000 in the week ended May 22, the government said Thursday. That’s the fewest number of requests for compensation since the onset of the pandemic nearly 15 months ago.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones and The Wall Street Journal had forecast new claims would fall to a seasonally adjusted 425,000.

New requests for compensation are down sharply from about 900,000 in early January.

The number of new applications had been running in the low 200,000s before the viral outbreak last year, however.

Big picture: Job openings recently surged to a record high and companies say they want to hire more workers because of surging demand for their goods and services.

Yet many also complain generous unemployment benefits have discouraged people from taking jobs, an argument that has persuaded almost half of the U.S. states to end extra federal payouts starting in late June.

Supporters of the extra benefits counter that many people, particularly women, are still stuck having to care for children or elderly parents because of the pandemic. They warn cutting off benefits will cause more hardship and slow the recovery.

Which side is right won’t be known until the end of July at the earliest.

Whatever the case, the U.S. economy still has enough momentum to ensure fairly strong growth over the summer, analysts say.

Key details: New unemployment claims declined the most in Washington state, Florida, New Jersey, Texas and Ohio. They only state to post a sizable increase was Oklahoma.

Another 93,546 applications for jobless benefits were filed last week through a temporary federal relief program. These claims had peaked last year at well over 1 million a week but have now dwindled to a pandemic low.

The number of people already collecting state jobless benefits, meanwhile, fell by 96,000 to a seasonally adjusted 3.64 million in the week ended May 15. These are known as continuing claims.

Some 5.2 million people who have exhausted state compensation were also getting extra federal benefits. The federal program ends in September.

Altogether, the number of people reportedly receiving benefits from eight separate state and federal programs totaled 15.8 million as of May 8. These claims had topped 30 million early in the crisis.

Fewer than 2 million people were getting benefits before the pandemic erupted.

Note to readers: A government review found the number of distinct individuals collecting benefits has been inflated by fraud and double counting. Widespread fraud has also resulted in tens of billions of dollars in improper payments, a Labor Department review estimated.

What they are saying? “Fewer Americans are getting laid off as COVID-19 levels drop, and many employers are now worried about finding and keeping workers,” said corporate economist Robert Frick at Navy Federal Credit Union.

“At current rates, we should see normal claims numbers of about 200,000 weekly sometime this summer, ” he said.

Jobless claims: Initial filings broke below 400,000 for the first time since March 2020
Emily McCormick·Reporter - Yahoo Finance
Thu, June 3, 2021, 6:30 AM

New jobless claims fell for a fifth consecutive week to reach a new 14-month low as fewer and fewer Americans become newly unemployed during the recovery out of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Department of Labor released its weekly report on new jobless claims Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:

Initial jobless claims, week ended May 29: 385,000 vs. 387,000 expected and a downwardly revised 405,000 last week

Continuing claims, week ended May 22: 3.771 million vs. 3.614 million expected and a downwardly revised 3.602 million last week

New jobless claims fell below 400,000 for the first time since the start of the pandemic in the U.S., bringing new filings within striking distance of their pre-pandemic weekly rate. New claims were averaging just over 200,000 per week throughout 2019.

As has been the case for the past several weeks, most states reported declines in new filings during the week ended May 29. The decreases were led by Texas with a drop of nearly 3,000 new claims, on an unadjusted basis. Oregon and Florida also saw new claims fall by more than 2,000 last week.

Some states did post notable increases in unadjusted new claims, however, including Pennsylvania with a rise of more than 7,000. California, Illinois and Kentucky followed with increases of more than 3,000 each.

With new filings tumbling consistently over the last several months, a central focus of the weekly reports has transitioned to the number of Americans still claiming benefits across all programs. That metric has remained stubbornly elevated even as the pandemic's grip on the U.S. begins to abate. And continuing claims for regular state programs unexpectedly increased during the week ended May 22, rising from the prior week's downwardly revised level.

During the week ended May 15, the number of Americans claiming benefits across all unemployment programs totaled 15.4 million, dipping by about 366,000 from the prior week. During the comparable week last year, total claimants came in at 30.8 million.

And notably, the number of Americans claiming benefits through the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) programs has been especially high. About 11.7 million individuals were claimants of these programs as of the week ended May 15, ticking down only trivially from the previous week.

These benefits are set to expire at the national level in early September. However, nearly two dozen states recently announced they would be cutting off these programs as soon as this month, largely in hopes of incentivizing workers to seek employment and alleviate some of the labor shortages reported across industries as demand resurges.

The Institute for Supply Management's May manufacturing index released earlier this week showed that employment trends were slowing in the goods-producing sector, and that "difficulties in filling open positions continue to be issues that limit manufacturing-growth potential," according to ISM.

"While initial jobless claims come well after the survey period for May employment, it will be useful to see the latest data for continuing claims — particularly the federal UI programs (PEUC and PUA)," Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist for Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note ahead of Thursday's report. "As of the first week of May, the four-week average of PEUC and PUA claimants was approximately 11.97 million, down a little over 740K from the beginning of April."

"Note that 23 states will be ending these programs prior to the federal cutoff in the first week of September. These states represent around 22% of those currently collecting federal benefits. Hence, it will be interesting to see how these states perform in the coming months as they begin to cut benefits for roughly 2.6 million people between June and July."

U.S. creates 559,000 jobs in May and unemployment falls to 5.8%, but it’s really just a so-so report
Last Updated: June 4, 2021 at 9:52 a.m. ET
First Published: June 4, 2021 at 8:42 a.m. ET
By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch

Companies can’t find enough workers to fill a record number of job openings

The numbers: The U.S. added a modest 559,000 new jobs in May even though most companies are eager to hire, signaling that labor and supply shortages are holding back an economic recovery.

The increase in employment in May fell short of Wall Street expectations. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones and The Wall Street Journal had forecast 671,000 new jobs.

The unemployment rate, meanwhile, slipped in May to a pandemic low of 5.8% from 6.1%. Yet the official rate almost certainly understates the true level of unemployment by 2 to 3 percentage points, economists say.

Big picture: The economy is strong and getting stronger thanks to a disappearing coronavirus pandemic, massive federal stimulus cash and a torrent of pentup demand. Americans are rushing to do all the things they couldn’t do during the pandemic.

The biggest obstacles to a full recovery are major shortages of key supplies and labor owing to ongoing disruptions resulting from the pandemic.

Take supplies. Companies slashed production early in the crisis because of depressed demand and difficulties obtaining critical materials from overseas suppliers.

They’re trying to catch up now, but they were caught off-guard by the quick rebound in the economy. Lingering international trade disruptions have added to their problems.

An emerging labor shortage is an even bigger surprise. The unemployment rate still quite high and the U.S. is missing almost 8 million jobs that existed before the pandemic.

Economists say early retirements, a lack of child-care options, lingering fear of the coronavirus and generous unemployment benefits explain why more people haven’t returned to work. These problems probably won’t clear up at least until the fall.

Many companies have increased wages in an effort to lure workers, but it still hasn’t been enough. Average hourly pay rose 15 cents, or 0.2%, to $30.33 an hour in May.

What they are saying? “It’s hard to hate this report, but it’s also hard to love it. It’s great to see a pickup to job growth, but it would have been better to see a larger acceleration,” said Nick Bunker, economic research director at Indeed.

“Another disappointing rise in payrolls in May,” said chief economist Rubeela Farooqi of High Frequency Economics. “Ongoing pandemic-related issues including
childcare and health concerns are likely a constraint on job growth.”

Key details: The bulk of the new jobs in May were created by the businesses that suffered the biggest declines in employment during the pandemic.

Restaurants added 186,000 new jobs last month as more Americans went out to eat. Many sites are relaxing restrictions on masks or customer occupancy with coronavirus cases falling to the lowest levels since the first month of the crisis.

Other service-oriented businesses such as hotels, museums, parks and entertainment venues also added a flush of new jobs.

Hiring increased among manufacturers, health-care providers and government as well.

Employment shrank in construction and retail. Home builders can’t find enough skilled tradespeople despite an industry boom.

In another negative sign, the size of the labor force declined slightly in May and remained at depressed levels. Usually when an economy is getting stronger and jobs are easy to find, more people enter the labor force.

The number of new jobs created in April, meanwhile, was revised up to 278,000 from 266,000. The weak April report had stunned Wall Street and raised doubts about the speed of the economic recovery.

Jobless claims: Initial filings unexpectedly rose to 412,000 last week
Emily McCormick·Reporter, Yahoo Finance
Thu, June 17, 2021, 6:31 AM

Initial unemployment claims unexpectedly rose last week to end a six-week streak of improvements, even as economic activity ramped further and reopenings broadened out.

But in the coming weeks, a phase-out of enhanced unemployment benefits across many states may decrease the total number of claimants.

The Department of Labor released its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:

Initial jobless claims, week ended June 12: 412,000 vs. 360,000 expected and a revised 375,000 during prior week

Continuing claims, week ended June 5: 3.518 million vs. 3.425 million expected and a revised 3.517 million during prior week

New filings broke back above the psychologically important 400,000 level for the first time since mid-May. Even with the increase, the four-week moving average for new jobless claims decreased by 8,000 to 395,000, given the drop in new claims over the past several weeks.

Continuing jobless claims for regular state programs, reported on a one-week lag, also unexpectedly increased, but have still come down sharply from the more than 5 million reported each week as recently as early January.

Importantly, this week's jobless claims data reflect the last survey period during which full federal pandemic-era unemployment benefits were in place across all U.S. states. On June 12, Alaska, Iowa, Missouri and Mississippi became the first states to significantly reduce or fully slash enhanced federal unemployment benefits ahead of their official September expiration date. The move would affect claims for hundreds of thousands of individuals.

Officials from these and the about two dozen states that have opted for this early phase-out have done so with the hope of incentivizing workers to rejoin the labor force, with social distancing standards having eased across the country and job openings at record highs amid widely cited labor shortages. The benefits set to be reduced or eliminated include the supplemental $300 per week in federal unemployment insurance, Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) for gig workers and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) for the longer-term unemployed.

Altogether, the total number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits across all programs was 14.8 million for the week ended May 29, the most recent date for which data is available. This was down by more than half a million from the previous week, with the pace of declines accelerating markedly from the prior week. The majority of these comprised workers claiming benefits through the PUA and PEUC, which totaled 11.3 million.

Many economists have suggested that the ongoing labor supply challenges are due to a variety of issues, including but not limited to enhanced unemployment benefits. Others have cited a combination of concerns, including lingering worries about contracting COVID-19 and finding childcare, as adding to the strain for workers.

"Most industries are reporting acute labor shortages, but that could even out by fall as the pandemic-era unemployment benefits are phased out and schools reopen allowing parents to return to work," Anu Gaggar, senior global investment analyst for Commonwealth Financial Network, said in an email.

State-by-state unemployment

The increase in new filings last week was consolidated across just a few states, including Pennsylvania, where claims rose by nearly 22,000 on an unadjusted basis, and California, where claims rose by about 15,700. About half of U.S. states still posted declines in new claims last week, albeit by smaller margins.

Some states continued to post elevated insured unemployment rates, with the proportion of total claimants to the state's overall population coming in well above the national average. Nevada's insured unemployment rate came in at 4.6% for the week ended May 29, which has come down precipitously from the state's pandemic-era high of more than 26% last year, but has held stubbornly above the national average of 2.5%

Rhode Island and Alaska rounded out the top three state with the highest insured unemployment rates at 4.5% and 3.9%, respectively.

Jobless claims: Another 411,000 Americans filed new unemployment claims last week
Emily McCormick·Reporter, Yahoo Finance
Thu, June 24, 2021, 6:31 AM

New weekly jobless claims resumed declining last week but by a smaller than expected margin, underscoring the still-choppy recovery in the U.S. labor market.

The Department of Labor released its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:

Initial jobless claims, week ended June 19: 411,000 vs. 380,000 expected and an upwardly revised 418,000 during prior week

Continuing claims, week ended June 12: 3.390 million vs. 3.460 million expected and an upwardly revised 3.534 million during prior week

At 411,000 jobless claims still above their pandemic-era low of 375,000 and the 2019 average of just over 200,000 new claims per week. The previous week's unexpected increase in new jobless claims had ended a six-week streak of improvements in initial filings. But overall, initial filings have been unambiguously on the decline, with broader business reopenings from New York to Los Angeles helping stoke economic activity and demand for labor.

Still, Thursday's report marks reflects a back-to-back week with new jobless claims above the psychologically important 400,000 level. The four-week moving average for new claims also moved up slightly, rising by 1,500 to 397,750.

"While progress in claims filings may have stalled in recent weeks, the change has been subtle so resist the urge to read too much into it or characterize things as getting worse," Greg McBride, Bankrate's chief financial analyst, wrote in an email. "Continuing claims, after all, did move slightly lower, and are at the lowest since the onset in March 2020."

Continuing jobless claims, reported on a one-week lag, sank to the lowest level since March 21, 2020, coming in at just under 3.4 million.

"Economic reopening and a strengthening labor market should lead to renewed declines in unemployment filings, with the summer months promising to bring us closer to the normal we’ve all been craving," McBride added.

Issues in the labor market have now primarily been on the supply rather than demand side, and a plethora of companies have cited difficulties in finding workers to fill job openings. In the service sector, the rate of job creation was the slowest in three months in early June, according to data from IHS Markit.

Thursday's report also marks the first following the early phaseout of federal enhanced unemployment benefits across numerous states. On June 12, Alaska, Iowa, Missouri and Mississippi became the first states to significantly reduce or fully slash enhanced federal unemployment benefits ahead of their official, national September expiration date.

And on June 19, another eight states — Alabama, Idaho, Indiana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, West Virginia and Wyoming — also conducted their own phaseouts of these unemployment benefits. The states that have opted for these early phase-outs have done so with the hope of incentivizing workers to rejoin the labor force. Many economists, however, have suggested a confluence of other factors, including childcare difficulties and concerns over getting sick have, have also impacted labor supplies.

The early end to these unemployment benefits may eventually bring down the total number of claimants reported across all programs, which was at 14.8 million as of the week ended June 5 for a slight uptick from the prior week. This has more than halved compared to the 31.3 million individuals reported during the same week last year, but is still highly elevated on a historical basis. Most of these comprised workers claiming benefits through the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs, at a combined 11.2 million.

State-by-state unemployment

The vast majority of states reported declines in new jobless claims last week on a seasonally unadjusted basis, suggesting most of the country is still making strides in keeping workers on payrolls as economic activity picks up.

Of the handful of states that did post increases in new claims last week, Pennsylvania saw by far the most. The state's new jobless claims increased by 14,500 last week to a total of just over 44,000, contributing significantly to last week's persistently elevated print.

Meanwhile, a handful of states and territories still posted high insured unemployment rates, or proportion of those claiming benefits to total state population. The Virgin Islands had the highest insured unemployment rate at 19.5% during the week ended June 5 at 19.5%, following by a wide margin by Rhode Island and Nevada at 4.8% and 4.5%, respectively.

Jobless claims: Another 364,000 Americans filed new unemployment claims last week
Emily McCormick·Reporter, Yahoo Finance
Thu, July 1, 2021, 6:31 AM

New weekly jobless claims fell back below the 400,000 level for the first time in three weeks, resuming improvements after a brief bump higher in initial filings.

The Department of Labor released its weekly report on new jobless claims Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:

Initial jobless claims, week ended June 26: 364,000 vs. 388,000 expected and an upwardly revised 415,000 during prior week

Continuing claims, week ended June 19: 3.469 million vs. 3.340 million expected and an upwardly revised 3.413 million during prior week

At 364,000, new filings reached the lowest level since March 2020. Prior to Thursday's report, initial unemployment claims had stagnated in recent weeks, holding stubbornly above the 400,000 level even as employers across the economy struggle to fill open positions. However, the overall trend has improved markedly over a longer time horizon, with new claims coming in at about half their total from the beginning of 2021. New claims were coming in at just over 200,000 per week on average throughout 2019.

"After two upside surprises, claims have dropped to a new cycle low, but only just; the previous low was 374K, three weeks ago," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note. "It’s possible, then, that the recent data signal a slowing in the trend rate of decline in claims, but these numbers are noisy and we aren’t going to rush to judgment on the back of such a short run of data."

"Moreover, the added complication over the next few weeks is that claims are often distorted in late June and early July by the annual automaker retooling shutdowns, which vary in their exact timing and extent from year-to-year," he added.

Many economists are looking for further improvement in the coming months. This would coincide with school reopenings to help alleviate the burden of finding childcare, an increase in consumer mobility and demand over the summer, and a phase-out of federal enhanced unemployment benefits.

As of June 26, about 20 states had partially or fully cut off the augmented jobless benefits put in place at the start of the pandemic. Some state officials have argued that the phase-out, which comes months before the official national expiration date in early September, would help incentive workers to rejoin the workforce especially as employers across industries cite labor shortages.

Some economists, however, have cast doubt on any causal link between ongoing federal unemployment benefits and widespread continued joblessness.

"We find that enhanced jobless benefits are an incentive for only a small share of unemployed workers to not find a job," Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. economist for Oxford Economics, wrote in a note Wednesday. "The data indicates a tenuous relationship between changes in the number of people receiving supplemental jobless benefits and the number of people sending out resumes or filling out job applications."

"In all, the findings indicate that the value of a permanent job and the elimination of risks tied to staying unemployed (such as the chance of a long jobless spell) outweigh the value of enhanced jobless benefits," Klachkin added.

Still, the total number of claimants reported across all programs has been persistently elevated, and mostly comprised those on the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) programs. The sum total of Americans claiming benefits of some form was 14.7 million as of the week ended June 12, which represented a slight tick down from the prior week. Of these, 11.1 million individuals were claimants of either PUA or PEUC.

State-by-state unemployment

The decline in new jobless claims was broad-based, with most U.S. states contributing to the decrease. Pennsylvania saw by far the biggest drop in new claims at 18,000 on an unadjusted basis. Kentucky also saw a drop of 8,000 new claims, while filings in California fell by nearly 7,000.

Other states still grappled with elevated insured unemployment rates, or proportion of those claiming unemployment benefits to the total state population. Rhode Island's insured unemployment rate was at 5.1% for the week ended June 12, or more than double the U.S. average of 2.5%.

Nevada, a tourist-heavy state that has for months had one of the highest insured unemployment rates in the nation, saw the second-highest rate at 4.4% for the week. Puerto Rico's insured unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%, and Connecticut rounded out the top four highest rates at 3.8%.

U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly rise, overall trend points lower
Thu, July 8, 2021, 6:41 AM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week but continuing claims dropped, another indication that the labor market recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic continues to be choppy.

Businesses have reopened at a rapid clip, boosted by a rollback in restrictions now that more than 155 million Americans have been fully vaccinated against the coronavirus. Still, the job market rebound has been anything but steady despite recent employment gains.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 373,000 for the week ended July 3, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 350,000 applications for the latest week.

"Through some of the noise in the data it still looks like the trend for filings keeps moving lower over time," said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.

Lack of affordable child care and fears of contracting the coronavirus have been cited for keeping workers, mostly women, at home. There were a record 9.2 million job openings at the end of May and 9.5 million people were officially unemployed in June.

The number of people continuing to receive benefits after an initial week of aid declined 145,000 to 3.339 million during the week ended June 26, the claims report showed. There were 14.2 million people receiving benefits under all programs in late June, a fall from 14.7 million earlier in the month.

The data comes on the heels of an encouraging monthly jobs report from the Labor Department last Friday, which showed U.S. companies hired the most workers in 10 months in June.

Claims have dropped from a record 6.149 million in early April 2020 but remain above the 200,000-250,000 range that is seen as consistent with a healthy labor market.

The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it smooths out week-to-week volatility, fell 250 to 394,750.

The claims data may remain volatile in the coming weeks as 25 states with mostly Republican governors pull out of federal government-funded unemployment programs. These included a $300 weekly check, which businesses complained was encouraging the jobless to stay at home.

Those collecting benefits under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs dropped by nearly 465,000 in the week ended June 19, the largest decline since early May. At a combined 10.7 million, their rolls were the lowest since the start of the year.

The early termination of aid began on June 5 and will run through July 31, when Louisiana, the only one of those states with a Democratic governor, ends the weekly check. For the rest of the country, these benefits will lapse on Sept. 6.

US jobless claims rise to 419,000 from a pandemic low
CHRISTOPHER RUGABER
Thu, July 22, 2021, 6:38 AM

WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits rose last week from the lowest point of the pandemic, even as the job market appears to be rebounding on the strength of a reopened economy.

The Labor Department said Thursday that jobless claims increased last week to 419,000, the most in two months, from 368,000 the previous week. The number of first-time applications, which generally tracks layoffs, has fallen steadily since topping 900,000 in early January.

Economists characterized last week's increase as most likely a blip caused by some one-time factors and partly a result of the inevitable bumpiness in the week-to-week data. Applications for jobless aid jumped last week, for example, in Michigan, where some auto plants have temporarily shut down production because of supply shortages.

“I do not worry that this reading signals a sudden weakening in labor demand,” said Stephen Stanley, an economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities. “In fact, I am quite confident that it does not.”

Americans are shopping, traveling and eating out more as the pandemic has waned, boosting the economy and forcing businesses to scramble for more workers. Companies have posted the highest number of available jobs in the two decades that the data has been tracked. Hiring has picked up, though businesses say they often can't find enough employees at the wages they're willing to pay.

At the same time, analysts are becoming concerned about the potential economic consequences of a tick-up in confirmed viral infections as the highly contagious delta variant spreads, especially among the unvaccinated. The seven-day rolling U.S. average for daily new cases accelerated over the past two weeks to more than 37,000 as of Tuesday, from fewer than 13,700, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Complaints by companies that they can't find enough workers have led 22 states to prematurely end a $300-a-week federal unemployment benefit, which comes on top of state jobless aid. Twenty states have ended their participation in two other federal programs — one of which provides benefits to the self-employed and gig workers, and another that serves people who have been out of work for six months or longer.

Officials in two other states, Indiana and Maryland, had sought to end the supplemental aid programs but were blocked by court rulings. Nationally, the programs will all expire in early September.

The early cutoffs of expanded unemployment aid have contributed to a steady decline in the number of people receiving unemployment benefits. That number fell to 12.6 million in the week ending July 3, the latest period for which data is available, down from 13.8 million the previous week. More than 600,000 recipients of unemployment aid were cut off in Texas alone.

The long-term decline in applications for jobless aid coincides with accelerating economic growth. The U.S. economy is thought to have expanded briskly during the April-June quarter as Americans, flush with cash from stimulus checks and from stock market and home equity, stepped up their spending.

Purchases at retail stores and restaurants rose in June, the government said last week. Retail sales are roughly 20% above pre-pandemic levels.

The ranks of the jobless have declined as companies have stepped up hiring. In June, employers added a healthy 850,000 jobs, further evidence that the reopening of the economy was driving a robust recovery from the pandemic recession.

The June jobs data also suggested that workers were enjoying an advantage as companies, desperate to fill positions, offered higher wages. Average hourly pay rose a solid 3.6% compared with a year earlier. That said, the economy still has 6.8 million fewer jobs than it did before the virus erupted in March of last year.

Applications for unemployment aid are typically seen as a rough measure of the pace of layoffs. During the pandemic, though, many states were beset by fraudulent claims that distorted the data.

A watchdog report released this week found that states distributed $12.9 billion in excess unemployment benefit payments from April 2020 through this March, with about one-tenth of the amount turning out to be fraudulent. Some of the remaining money might also have involved fraud but won’t be classified as such until it is investigated.

The GAO also found that many people out of work still had to wait an extended period for their jobless aid applications to be processed and approved. Nationally, about one in 10 people who first received benefits in May had waited more than 10 weeks for it.

Jobless claims: Another 385,000 Americans filed new unemployment claims last week
Emily McCormick·Reporter, YAHOO Business
Thu, August 5, 2021, 6:31 AM

New weekly jobless claims dipped last week to come in near consensus estimates, trending down but still coming in well above pre-pandemic levels as the labor market's recovery trudges forward.

The Labor Department released its weekly jobless claims report on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

Initial unemployment claims, week ended July 31: 385,000 vs. 383,000 expected and a revised 399,000 during prior week

Continuing claims, week ended July 24: 2.930 million vs. 3.255 million expected and a revised 3.296 million during prior week

Though initial jobless claims are down significantly from their weekly pace of more than 1 million this time last year, they are still markedly elevated compared to their 2019 weekly average of just over 200,000.

Continuing unemployment claims came in lower than expected, breaking back below 3 million for the first time since mid-March 2020.

The total number of claimants across all programs also ticked down marginally, according to this week's report, falling by nearly 200,000 to come in just below 13 million. However, that came even as nearly half of U.S. states phased out federal augmented unemployment benefits this summer ahead of the national expiration date in September, with these states' leaders hoping the move would incentivize workers to rejoin the labor market.

In recent weeks, however, concerns over the spread of the Delta variant have increased, confounding many employers' in-person, return-to-office plans and deterring some individuals from taking high-contact jobs. These concerns compounded with existing complications around finding child care during the summer. Plus, many economists have said the ongoing enhanced federal unemployment support across dozens of states has kept at least some workers on the sidelines until the fall.

"The Delta variant is just one part of the uncertainties that are currently characterizing the labor market. There are other bottlenecks that were there before the Delta variant really became part of the national attention, including child care and the lack of child care over the summer," Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist, told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday.

"[There's been] this hiring mismatch with firms all wanting to hire this summer, while consumers and workers may have benefitted from transfer payments or generous unemployment payments that keep them off the payrolls until the fall," she added. "All of these things are coming together to show up in a very uneven, but still progressive labor market recovery."

Last week, a number of states saw marked improvements in new filings. Pennsylvania's new claims fell by 6,400 on an unadjusted basis, followed by Texas and Florida with declines of more than 4,400 and 3,800, respectively.

But while new claims trended lower in most states, other metrics demonstrated ongoing strain in some of the most populous areas of the country. By insured unemployment rate, or number of those claiming unemployment benefits as a percentage of total state population, California saw the biggest level at 5.2% for. the week ended July 17. This was followed by Puerto Rico and Nevada with rates of 5.1% and 4.1%, respectively. These compared to a national average insured unemployment rate of 2.4% for the same week.

Outside of the weekly unemployment claims reports, other data on the labor market have also been choppy. Wednesday's monthly ADP jobs report showed that private payrolls rose by just 330,000, or less than half the sum consensus economists had been looking for. Friday's "official" monthly jobs report is still expected to show a slight pick-up in hiring, however, with non-farm payrolls expected to rise by 870,000, compared to 850,000 in June