Unemployment Stats

US economy adds 194K jobs in September, missing estimates
Unemployment rate fell to 4.8%
By Jonathan Garber, FOXBusiness
Published 2 hours ago

September jobs report significantly below analyst expectations

U.S. employers hired fewer workers than expected last month as supplemental unemployment benefits expired.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 194,000 workers in September as the unemployment rate fell to 4.8%, the Labor Department said Friday. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting the addition of 500,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate to slip to 5.1%.

The jobs gains in August were revised up to 366,000 from 235,000.

"The labor market recovery continues to hit the brakes this month, but is far from completely stopping," said Daniel Zhao, senior economist at Glassdoor. "Despite the soft September report, there's still a case for optimism in the coming months, as we are beginning to look in the rearview mirror, and the peak of the Delta wave’s repercussions is behind us."

The September report was the first since the $300 per week in supplemental unemployment benefits expired on September 5. Economists are still assessing the impact of the Child Tax Credit, which pays families up to $3,600 per child per year. Also having an impact going forward will be the mandatory vaccine requirements being enforced by a growing number of companies.

Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality (+74,000) were led by the arts, entertainment, and recreation sector (+43,000). Hiring in food services and drinking places was little changed for a second straight month after averaging a monthly gain of 197,000 from January through July. Professional and business services (+60,000), retail trade (+56,000), and transportation and warehousing (+47,000) also saw sizable gains.

Both local government education (-144,000) and state government education (-17,000) lost jobs last month.

The number workers reentering the labor force decreased by 198,000 last month to 2.3 million. The labor force participation rate was little changed at 61.6%, and was 1.7 percentage points below its February 2020 level. The rate has held between 61.4% and 61.7% since June 2020.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.6% in September and was up 4.6% year over year. Economists were expecting a 0.4% monthly increase and a 4.6% year over year gain.

"After looking like almost a done deal, today’s jobs number has thrown expectations for tapering into disarray," said Principal Global Investors Chief Strategist Seema Shah, adding that the hotter-than-expected hourly wage growth presents the Fed with a "real conundrum."

October jobs report: Payrolls grew by 531,000 as unemployment rate fell to 4.6%
Yahoo Finance
EMILY MCCORMICK
November 5, 2021, 6:31 AM

U.S. employers increased their pace of hiring in October, with declining COVID-19 infections and demand for workers amid widespread shortages helping bolster labor market activity.

The Labor Department released its October jobs report Friday morning. Here were the main metrics from the report, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

Change in non-farm payrolls, October: +531,000 vs. +450,000 expected, +194,000 in September

Unemployment rate: 4.6% vs. 4.7% expected, 4.8% in September

Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: 0.4% vs. 0.4% expected, 0.6% in September

Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: 4.9%. vs. 4.9% expected, 4.6% in September

Non-farm payrolls posted their biggest jump in a single month since July. Job growth for the past two months was also upwardly revised. The Labor Department said Friday that September payrolls increased by 312,000, up from the disappointing 194,000 previously reported. And employers in August brought back 483,000 jobs, versus the 366,000 posted in the prior print.

“Our economy is starting to work for more Americans. Thanks to the economic plan we put through in Congress earlier this year and a successful vaccine deployment, America continues to add jobs at a record pace. In this historically strong recovery, unemployment has fallen again today,” President Joe Biden said during a press conference on Friday. “Our economy is on the move.”

Though payrolls have grown in every month so far in 2021, the economy remains more than 4 million jobs short of its pre-pandemic levels following plunges in employment between March and April of 2020. And the civilian labor force was still down by nearly 3 million individuals compared to February 2020 as of October.

Hiring was expected to pick up in a broad range of industries for October, but leisure and hospitality employers saw an especially pronounced boost as concerns over the Delta variant receded and enabled more service employees to return to work. These industries added back 164,000 jobs in October, or nearly double the 88,000 brought back in September. Professional and business services payrolls also jumped by 100,000, and education and health services roles rose by 64,000 in the private sector. Payroll growth slowed, however, in each of retail trade and transportation and warehousing in October compared to September, with ongoing supply chain shortages and labor scarcities hitting these industries especially hard.

In the goods-producing sector, manufacturing jobs rose by 60,000 to come in double the consensus estimate. This also accelerated from the 31,000 payrolls brought back in this industry in September. Durable goods payrolls specifically rose by 41,000 durable goods payrolls while jobs in motor vehicles and parts increased by nearly 28,000, after this industry group shed jobs on net a month earlier.

While job growth has struggled to keep pace with employer demand in recent months, the October report hinted at the start of some improvement on labor scarcities. Job openings came in at a near-all-time high in August — the latest month for which data is available — while the quits rate soared by a record. And companies have been widely citing labor shortages in third-quarter earnings reports. Mentions of "labor" on earnings calls have skyrocketed by 320% over last year, according to data from Bank of America.

"My largest concern right now — outside of inflationary pressures — is ultimately what happens with this labor supply shortage, because the labor supply shortage feeds into the supply chain issues we're seeing," Kevin Mahn, Hennion & Walsh chief investment officer, told Yahoo Finance Live on Thursday. "Everyone is forecasting a record holiday shopping season, but there will be delays in shipping. I'm not concerned with consumers' demand for products."

Other economists offered similar concerns around labor scarcities.

"On balance, we look for a substantial rebound in the pace of non-farm hiring in October, with gradual improvement in the unemployment rate and sustained strength in earnings growth," wrote Sam Bullard, chief economist for Wells Fargo, in a note ahead of Friday's report. "While positive, employment growth remains constrained by the supply side, and there is little evidence that suggests material improvement is near."

"Indeed, recent strike activity and vaccine mandates have been challenging factors on the supply front and suggest that labor market improvement will be gradual in coming months," he added.

Still, the labor data heading into Friday's report were upbeat. ADP reported Wednesday that private payrolls jumped by a better-than-expected 571,000 in October, whereas just 400,000 were expected. New weekly unemployment claims came in at 269,000, or their lowest level since March 2020, and had also broken below the psychologically important 300,000 level in the middle of October during the Labor Department's survey week for the monthly jobs report.

The labor market data is also important in helping inform the Federal Reserve's moves on monetary policy. The central bank has signaled it is looking for more progress on bringing sidelined workers back into the labor force before adjusting the rate of its tapering program or considering a hike on interest rates.

"There is still ground to cover to reach maximum employment both in terms of employment and in terms of participation," Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said during his latest post-FOMC meeting press conference on Wednesday. He added that it was "within the realm of possibility" that the economy achieved maximum employment by the second half of next year, as measured by a broad range of metrics.

—

US jobs growth falls far short of expectations
Published 1 hour ago | BBC

US employers hired only 210,000 more workers in November, missing economists' predictions for stronger growth.

Forecasters had been expecting US non-farm payrolls to increase by 550,000.

The US Bureau of Labour Statistics said there had been a decline in employment in the retail sector.

But on the upside, it said there had been a rise in hiring across areas such as professional and business services as well as transport and warehousing.

The bureau also said construction and manufacturing had added new jobs.

'Dropping out'

While job creation fell short of expectations, the unemployment rate declined to 4.2% in November, down from 4.6% in October.

The overall proportion of the population that was in work or looking for work, known as the participation rate, also rose slightly.

"The bottom line is it's a disappointment," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital. "The reason we have the drop in unemployment is people dropping out the workforce and that's not a good sign."

But Joe Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade, said the low rate of hiring overall and the sharp fall in unemployment didn't "add up" and he expected the figures to be revised upwards.

He said the sectors "that don't truly make sense" are leisure and hospitality rising by such a small amount, and retail being down, "which is very odd for this time of year", he said.

Hiring hurdles

Hiring in the retail sector fell by 20,000, especially in general merchandise and clothing stores, despite the start of the busy holiday shopping season and many retailers offering higher wages and other perks to attract staff.

Employment in leisure and hospitality rose only 23,000 and remains nearly 8% lower than before Covid hit.

In September, children returned to schooling in-person and pandemic-related unemployment benefits stopped, leading many analysts to expect strong jobs growth throughout the autumn.

Figures for October were revised up to show 546,000 jobs were added that month.

However, millions of Americans have not returned to work, leaving the total workforce significantly smaller than it was before the pandemic. Commonly cited reasons are difficulties with childcare and concerns around Covid infection.

There are still 3.9 million fewer people in the workforce compared to February 2020.

Many employers have struggled to recruit the staff they need, and have raised wages or offered other perks to attract and retain workers.

Mike Rowe on what 11M open jobs means for US economy
Dec 8, 2021

Record 4.5 million Americans quit jobs in November
Emily McCormick·Reporter | YAHOO
Tue, January 4, 2022, 8:01 AM

Demand for workers in the U.S. remained historically elevated in November, with job openings holding near an all-time high and the number of individuals quitting their jobs reaching a record amid the ongoing pandemic.

Vacancies totaled 10.562 million in November, according to the Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) released Tuesday. This comes is slightly lower than the 11.091 million in October, based on the government's revised print for the month. Consensus economists were looking for job openings to rise to 11.079 million in November, according to Bloomberg data.

The quits rate came in at 3.0%, matching the record-high level last seen in September and suggesting an elevated number of individuals were voluntarily leaving their jobs. This was up from the 3.8% quits rate from October. A record 4.5 million individuals quit their jobs in November.

About 1.37 million people were laid off or fired during the month, compared to 2.12 million people in the same month in 2020.

By industry, job openings declined most notably in accommodation and food services, with vacancies falling by 261,000 but remaining at a still-elevated 1.3 million in total. Construction and non-durable goods manufacturing employers also saw notable drops in job openings at 110,000 and 66,000, respectively.

Tuesday's report extends a streak of elevated readings on job openings. Vacancies rose throughout early 2021 and reached a record high of 11.098 million in July, and have retreated only modestly since then.

And while the JOLTS report for November does not yet capture any meaningful impact from the Omicron variant discovered around Thanksgiving, some economists suggested labor shortages may be exacerbated at least in the near-term due to the latest surge.

"Companies have shifted their demand for workers at a pace that is normally only seen during economic booms," Chris Rupkey, chief economist for FWDBONDS, wrote in an email Tuesday. "The economy is booming today but for how long is the question with the spread of the latest COVID variant that is closing many schools and slowing commerce and buyer traffic at many shops and malls."

The JOLTS data also adds to a slew of other reports pointing to the persistent tightness in the U.S. labor market. The last monthly jobs report from the Labor Department showed a disappointing 210,000 non-farm payrolls came back in the penultimate month of last year. The labor force participation rate remained depressed compared to pre-pandemic levels, and the civilian labor force was still down by about 2.4 million participants versus levels from February 2020. And according to the latest NFIB Small Business Optimism report, nearly half of surveyed owners said they had job openings that could not be filled in November. The December jobs report is slated to be released on Friday.

But while labor shortages have continued to strain employers seeking to fill positions, leverage among workers has increased. Average hourly earnings last rose at a 4.8% year-over-year clip in November, though this rise was dwarfed by the 6.8% jump in U.S. consumer prices during the same month, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey last month showed a labor differential — or percentage of those saying jobs were "plentiful" less those saying jobs were "hard to get" — that was still elevated on a historical basis, suggesting workers were still finding it relatively easy to find jobs.

Hiring slows in US after record year of job gains
Published 31 minutes ago | BBC

Hiring in the US slowed last month, as firms struggled to hire workers and continued to grapple with the effects of coronavirus.

Employers hired just 199,000 people in December, a second month of weaker than expected gains.

But the jobless rate dropped sharply to 3.9% and wages rose, the Labor Department said.

The mixed data, which was collected before Omicron's full force was felt, follows a record year of jobs growth.

"For a second straight month, we have conflicting pictures emerging," said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com. "This report appears to reflect the state of play before the worst impacts of the Omicron variant hit the economy."

"We will have to wait until the following report, covering the job market picture in January, to get a clearer picture," he added.

The US added more than 6.4 million jobs in 2021, regaining many of the positions lost at the height of the pandemic in 2020.

Though total employment remains about 3.6 million lower than its pre-pandemic level - and far lower than it would have been if Covid had not struck - many signs point to a strong economy.

A record 4.5 million Americans quit jobs in November - a sign of confidence in the labour market - and more than 10 million positions stand open, the government reported this week. Jobless claims have dropped to a near 50-year low.

"I could hire three full-timers and one part-timer on the spot," said Konstantinos Tsoulos, owner of Brothers Bagels in Brooklyn, New York.

In September, he decided to close the shop on Mondays due to the staff shortage. He said he has not had a single person inquire about a job.

"I've been in business almost 35 years and I've never seen anything like it," he said.

December's job gains were felt across most industries, led by leisure and hospitality. The unemployment rate fell to 3.9% from 4.2%, while average hourly earnings were up 4.7% year-on-year.

Wells Fargo economist Sarah House said future growth would be determined by worker availability.

"December's report underscored that workers are only likely to trickle back into the jobs market as reasons for sitting out, like financial cushions, health concerns and childcare issues do not unwind all at once," she said.

The labour shortages have helped to push inflation in the US to its highest rate in almost 40 years.

In response, America's central bank has signalled it plans to start removing support for the economy, raising interest rates potentially as soon as March.

But the emergence of the Omicron variant has complicated the outlook for the economy.

The virus has been blamed for widespread worker absences in recent weeks, prompting the cancellation of thousands of flights, the closure of major school districts and strains on hospitals, transport systems and other businesses.

Mr Tsoulos said his business has been holding on thanks to patronage from neighbourhood families. But he is worried by the shift to remote work, which has cut into his commuter business and the catering orders he used to receive from offices.

"Everybody was touting that the downtown office buildings would open after Labor Day and nothing happened. Then they said January and it's almost mid-January," he said. "Now they're talking June."

US jobless claims rise to 3-month high
Emily McCormick·Reporter
Thu, January 20, 2022, 6:32 AM

Weekly new jobless claims unexpectedly jumped last week by the most since October, with some renewed virus-related disruptions at least temporarily impeding the labor market's recovery.  

The Labor Department released its latest weekly jobless claims report Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

Initial jobless claims, week ended Jan. 15: 286,000 vs. 225,000 expected and a revised 231,000 during prior week

Continuing claims, week ended Jan. 8: 1.635 million vs. 1.563 million expected and a revised 1.551 million during prior week

Initial unemployment claims rose for a back-to-back week, coming in near the 300,000 level. This represented some backsliding from recent progress in the trajectory of jobless claims. Claims had reached a 52-year low of 188,000 in December, as many employers attempted to keep their existing workforces in the face of widespread labor shortages.

Continuing claims also came in higher-than-expected in the most recent data. These claims, which tracks filers still collecting regular state unemployment benefits, rose by more than 1.6 million in mid-January. Still, continuing claims had come in at the lowest level since 1973 just a week earlier.

The most recent move higher in new claims may be due to some impacts from the Omicron variant and ultimately prove temporary, according to some economists.

"After having notched the lowest levels in decades, new claims are moving in the wrong direction. Omicron deserves suspicion for some new job loss, with pressures being seen both on the labor demand and supply sides," Mark Hamrick, Bankrate.com senior economic analyst, wrote in an email Thursday. "Because of the pandemic, some workers have been sidelined and no doubt some businesses have been negatively impacted by this latest wave of the pandemic."

And even without the latest pressures from the virus, the labor market had already been considerably tight heading into 2022, representing one of many supply-side challenges for companies.

"Transportation and labor markets remain tight, availability of materials remain stretched in some categories and in some markets, inflationary pressures are broad-based with little signs of near-term relief," Procter & Gamble Chief Financial Officer Andre Schulten said during the company's earnings call Wednesday.

Still, competition for labor has also presented opportunities and additional leverage for workers. Wages last rose at 4.7% on an annual basis in December, according to the latest monthly Labor Department data. And some of the biggest corporations in the U.S. including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have already reported higher compensation costs in their latest quarterly results, largely as a bid to attract and retain talent.

"The consumer has $2 trillion more on their balance sheet, their home prices are up, asset prices are up, jobs are plentiful, wages are going up, which is good for them," JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said during the firm's earnings call last week. "We're not against that ... the consumer is in really good shape."

Labor Shortages Shift to Higher-Paying Industries, “Quits” Decline for Second Month but Still in the Astronomical Zone
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. • Mar 9, 2022



Is the collapse of the formerly high-flying stocks bringing day-traders back into the labor force?

Job openings in January remained at the upper end of the astronomical zone, the second highest ever, just a hair below the record set in December. Companies reported 11.26 million job openings (seasonally adjusted), up by 57%, or by 4.1 million, from January 2020. The astronomical zone started developing in mid-2021.

These job openings in the JOLTS data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are not based on online job postings but on a monthly survey of 21,000 nonfarm businesses and government entities, asking them how many actual job openings they had at the end of the month.

The labor shortages overall remain in the astronomical zone and are large and disruptive for companies that cannot staff up to levels they want to, and they’ve increased pay to attract and retain talent. And workers have discovered their negotiation power and new flexibility among employers.

But we’re now seeing more people being drawn back into the labor force, for whatever reason.

Some of them may have blown all their stimulus and PPP money and their retirement money on stock and crypto bets gone awry – with stocks of many high-flying companies down 70% and even 90%, which when leveraged, wipes out the capital. And it may be time to get back and get a job – and there hasn’t been a better time to do so in many decades. A rout in asset prices could well bring more folks back into the labor force – which is what happened during the dotcom bust as well. Many of them are among the smartest folks out there, and it would be great to have them back in the labor force to accomplish something real.

3-24-2022
Americans face triple whammy as rent, gas and electric bills surge
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-gas-prices-rent-electricity-bills-rise/

3-25-2022
Weekly jobless claims fall to lowest level since 1969
( A link every now and then would be nice Temple  )

Gee I wonder why people would suddenly need to find jobs...